Research Seminar 07.04.25: Mauricio Suarez - The Possibilities in Propensities: Emergence and Modality

Mauricio Suarez

Complutense University of Madrid,

 and a Life Member at Clare Hall, Cambridge

The Possibilities in Propensities: Emergence and Modality

The complex nexus of chance (CNC) is a pluralistic account of the application of objective chance to statistical modelling practice. It refrains from reducing objective probability to either frequency or propensity; instead, it embraces all three notions and their complex interrelations. This chapter argues that, on the CNC account, propensities are abstract designators for whatever properties of chance setups reliably generate the range of objective possibilities in a probability function's outcome space. The process whereby the “possible” is extracted out of the “actual” is best rendered in terms of indexed chance functions and provides a cogent response to Humphreys' paradox. It then becomes evident that the propensities of complex systems are emergent properties endowed with their own dynamics, and they may appear at any level of the description of the phenomena. This is a markedly distinct approach to the usual attempt to locate the categorical basis of probabilistic dispositional properties within the physical microstructure of objects, systems, or events. The consequences for modality are considerable, since it follows that the range of possibilities within the probability functions that display propensities is materially constrained at any level of description.

Gathering for coffee and refreshments at 17:45

Chair: Ori Belkind

The public is invited